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Nuclear Arms Race

Mon, 16 Jun 2025 12:14:35 GMT
Nuclear Arms Race

A specter is haunting the globe, but it is not a relic of the Cold War. It is the dawn of a new, more complex, and potentially more dangerous nuclear arms race. The carefully constructed arms control architecture that for decades helped prevent a nuclear holocaust is crumbling, while the world's nine nuclear-armed states are aggressively modernizing and, in some cases, expanding their arsenals. This is not a simple sequel to the 20th-century standoff between two superpowers; it is a multipolar competition, supercharged by emerging technologies and set against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions.

The Shifting Landscape of Nuclear Powers

The number of nuclear warheads in the world has been slowly declining since the end of the Cold War, primarily due to the United States and Russia dismantling retired warheads. However, this trend is on the verge of reversal. The number of operational nuclear weapons is increasing, and the world's nuclear powers are all engaged in intensive modernization programs.

As of early 2025, the nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—possessed an estimated 12,241 nuclear warheads. Of these, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use. Russia and the United States together still possess about 90% of all nuclear weapons.

While the U.S. and Russia have maintained relatively stable stockpile sizes, both are in the midst of extensive and expensive modernization programs for their nuclear triads of land-based missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and strategic bombers. However, the most rapid expansion of a nuclear arsenal is happening in China. Beijing is on track to have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either Russia or the United States by the turn of the decade. China's nuclear arsenal is estimated to have reached 600 warheads, growing by about 100 annually since 2023. The country is also constructing approximately 350 new missile silos.

Other nuclear-armed states are not standing still. The United Kingdom has announced its intention to increase its warhead ceiling. France is developing a new generation of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines and a new air-launched cruise missile. India and Pakistan are both expanding their nuclear arsenals and developing new types of delivery systems. North Korea continues to prioritize its nuclear program and is estimated to have enough fissile material for up to 90 warheads. Israel is also believed to be modernizing its undeclared nuclear arsenal.

The Erosion of Arms Control

A key driver of this new arms race is the collapse of the international arms control framework. The New START treaty, the last remaining agreement limiting U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals, is set to expire in February 2026 with no clear path to a successor agreement. Russia has suspended its participation, and the United States has expressed a desire for a new treaty to include China, a condition Beijing has so far rejected.

The demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, from which the U.S. withdrew citing Russian violations, further dismantled the guardrails that had helped maintain strategic stability. The current geopolitical climate, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine and heightened tensions in the Middle East and Asia, has made diplomatic efforts to revive arms control exceedingly difficult.

The Technological Wildcard: Hypersonics and AI

Adding a volatile new dimension to this landscape are emerging and disruptive technologies. Hypersonic missiles, which can travel at more than five times the speed of sound and are highly maneuverable, pose a significant challenge to existing missile defense systems and shorten decision-making timelines in a crisis.

Artificial intelligence is also poised to revolutionize nuclear strategy. AI could be integrated into nuclear command and control systems, potentially speeding up threat detection and analysis. However, this raises profound concerns about the risk of miscalculation or an accident leading to an unintentional launch. The use of AI in intelligence gathering could also make it harder to conceal nuclear assets, potentially creating a "use them or lose them" dilemma in a conflict. Autonomous weapons systems, or "killer robots," raise the specter of lethal decisions being made without direct human control, a prospect that many experts find deeply unsettling.

A World on Edge

The convergence of these factors—the expansion and modernization of nuclear arsenals, the decay of arms control, and the advent of new military technologies—is creating a more precarious and unpredictable global security environment. The risk of nuclear weapons being used, whether by intention, miscalculation, or accident, is now considered by many experts to be as high, if not higher, than at any point since the Cold War.

Several geopolitical flashpoints have the potential to escalate to a nuclear crisis. The war in Ukraine has been accompanied by repeated nuclear threats from Russia. The long-standing conflict between India and Pakistan periodically flares up, and both countries are expanding their nuclear capabilities. The Taiwan Strait is another area of major concern, with the potential for a conflict between nuclear-armed China and the United States. Tensions between Israel and Iran are also at a boiling point, with Iran's advancing nuclear program adding to regional instability.

The Path Forward

Reversing the tide of this new nuclear arms race will require a concerted and sustained effort from the international community. Reviving arms control negotiations, even in the current challenging environment, is crucial. This may require new, more flexible approaches that go beyond traditional bilateral treaties and address the complexities of a multipolar nuclear world. Some experts have suggested that informal agreements or confidence-building measures could be a starting point.

Efforts to promote transparency and dialogue among nuclear-armed states are also essential to reduce the risk of miscalculation. Furthermore, there is a growing call for international norms and regulations to govern the development and use of emerging military technologies like AI and hypersonic weapons.

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which entered into force in 2021, represents a different approach, seeking to stigmatize and eliminate nuclear weapons altogether. While none of the nuclear-armed states have joined the treaty, its supporters argue that it is helping to build a global norm against nuclear weapons.

The challenges are immense, but the stakes could not be higher. A single nuclear detonation in a major city could kill hundreds of thousands of people and have catastrophic, long-lasting consequences for the environment and global health. Preventing such a catastrophe requires a renewed commitment to diplomacy, arms control, and disarmament. The world has pulled back from the brink of nuclear war before, and it must do so again.

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